No Hoof, No Dice

Good day, Gooners

Massive match tomorrow but I feel a certain calm before the storm. I know it's a huge match and Chelsea has quality players but I'm not convinced. Chelsea will have to stop hoofing the ball from the back line up to the strikers to ever get my respect.

On injuries, I know that Arsenal is missing in-form Robin Van Persie but there are other quality strikers at the club. It's hugely disappointing to lose RVP, and fresh news this morning states he is going to be out for five months, not weeks. What a shame. Other notable Arsenal injuries are Clichy and Diaby. When Clichy went down he was not in-form but his speed, intelligence, and experience is always missed in big matches. For all the criticism Diaby receives he is the type of player who could succeed in a match like this for his long legs can break up passing lanes and disrupt the Chelsea midfield diamond formation. Then again Diaby scored an own- goal in his last massive match. Fortunately, Denilson is back and if paired with Song he could fill the Diaby void, and apparently add the long distance shot, too.

For Chelsea, they are at full strength minus Bosingwa. Must be nice. The only absentee of worth is Frank Lampard, and as much as I think he is well overrated and awfully lucky he has been influential against the Gunners in the past. Even if he comes on late for 30 minutes it's a small compensation for the loss of RVP. I won't say much else on Frank as I think this guy is so unbelievably lucky and not worth any sort of analysis.

The only possible replacement for RVP is Eduardo and he had a poor showing versus Sunderland, which could be expected as his back was turned to receive the ball throughout the match, and he was always in danger of getting kicked. Tomorrow, if he can slide behind the Chelsea Center Backs and at the very least keep them guessing and spread apart then our midfield will have the space to create. Eduardo is the type of player who only needs a small bit of space and time to finish. Come tomorrow it's certain he'll have very little time and be put to the test.

If I was manager I don't think I would use Eduardo, or any other traditional striker till late in the match. I would put Nasri down the center with Arshavin and Walcott on the wings. I would prefer for the three of them to roam freely, creating space with short and long diagonal runs. There's no doubt in my mind that Cesc could feed these runs with great success. I feel the disruption of players criss-crossing would wreak havoc on the Chelsea back line. After much confusion and tired legs, Eduardo could be deployed for any of the three attackers and the defense could be exploited. It will be interesting to see which attackers stay on the bench, and are used late. If I had to bet, we might see Walcott benched to start due to his fitness levels.

Now at the end of the day, I feel Arsenal can win this match with their speed and counter-attack. I can't see Cashley or He-Man drifting up the park too often if Wenger deploys Walcott and Arshavin. Omit Walcott and add Rosicky or Nasri and the flanking speed is something we have not had in recent years and is an immediate concern for Chelsea. Therefore, I feel the Left and Right Back will have to stay back and keep them in check; if they do go up they have to come back just as quickly, which by the end of the match both will be exhausted. A late Arsenal sub (Rosicky or Walcott?) could be used to take advantage of those tired legs.

Arsenal need to prevent Chelsea scoring opportunities and the only way to stop Drogba and Anelka is to stop them at the source of distribution. A bossing performance from Song and/or Denilson will be needed to hinder the distribution up to their striking pair. For the most part I am confident that our midfield can pressure Essien, Ballack and Deco into errant passes so I feel the work will need to be done farther up the pitch. The attacking trio, whomever they may be will need to work hard and pressure the Chelsea back line to provide poor long balls. Even the slightest amount of pressure could be enough to put the ball too far forward or behind the strikers, and that could be the difference needed to contain the Chelsea strike force. Worth mentioning, Chelsea have conceded 7 Away goals to their 1 Home goal concession while Arsenal have scored 20 goals at Home and conceded a respectful 4. Arsenal is good at scoring at the Emirates while Chelsea is not immune to the Away goal. Goals will come down to taking any chance provided.

I think we'll see a back-and-forth match-up, as in, Arsenal controlling much of the match with slick passing and possession while Chelsea deploys 'hoof and hope' tactics. Occasional loss of possession will result in Chelsea trying to feed the two strikers via hoof. I feel that both Vermaelen and Gallas, if fit, can contain the striking duo until midfielders can track back on defense. Vermaelen is no slouch and will definitely get stuck-in on Drogba. And I hope that the ref isn't easily deceived by this cheater's dives and flops. I don't want to write it but who doesn't get a bit uneasy thinking this guy is going to win a penalty? I'll remain optimisitc so due to Drogba containment, opportunities to goal will likely come from the midfield as the two strikers will look to lay off the ball; now, if Chelsea is successful, Arsenal will concede but if players are up to playing both sides of the ball I think Arsenal could get the clean sheet. It's gonna take a high-effort performance by all to protect the goals against. In contrast, errant lay off passes to Arsenal players would release the Gunners on the counter-attack, which I feel is a manner of play Chelsea cannot engage in for 90 minutes. Chelsea simply don't have the legs to run back and forth. It's likely that Ancelloti will play defensive and hope for an Arsenal error to get the go-ahead goal. I don't feel he has the balls to play Arsenal straight up and will continue to hoof the ball long, hold, and then distribute backwards to forward. I think the errant layoff passes due to high pressure is where the match will be won for the Arsenal.

I think the Arsenal will win. I think the Arsenal will win convincingly, say, 2-nil and the defense will put together a strong clean sheet performance. Arsenal have more than enough attacking quality to get goals, and even though the team's defense looks less than full-strength I feel Wenger will deploy a strong enough batch of players to contain the striking threat. It's gonna take a strong, collective team effort to get a win but I feel the team, at Home, can rise to the occasion and take the derby and close the gap at the top.

ArsenaLOS